Match details. League Cup, Group Stage - 1. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 09:30 Lagos time. It is played at Maguwoharjo Stadium, Yogyakarta.
What's at stake. PSS Sleman are 1st on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with PSGC Ciamis. PSGC Ciamis are 2nd on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with PSS Sleman, level on points with Garudayaksa. A win would take them above PSS Sleman.
Form. PSS Sleman have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W. PSGC Ciamis have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W.
The numbers. PSS Sleman score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. PSS Sleman average 9.0 shots (3.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game. PSGC Ciamis score 0.7 and concede three a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. PSGC Ciamis average 7.2 shots (1.8 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The case against. PSGC Ciamis's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. PSS Sleman to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make PSS Sleman the likelier winners; PSS Sleman are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour PSS Sleman. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 90%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: PSGC Ciamis or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs PSS Sleman); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: PSS Sleman 2-1 PSGC Ciamis (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).