Match details. Super League. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Zanaco FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. FC Muza have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D.
The numbers. Zanaco FC score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Zanaco FC average 9.8 shots (3.4 on target), 5.7 corners and 3.0 cards a game. FC Muza score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. FC Muza average 1.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Zanaco FC's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. FC Muza to win. A tight game. FC Muza are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (FC Muza are a clear winner, no Unders); FC Muza or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Zanaco FC 0-1 FC Muza (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).