Sunrise FC vs Al-Merrikh SC (SDN)
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Sunrise FC are 9th on 8 points after 7 games, level on points with Rayon Sports, 1 point clear of APR. A win would take them above Rayon Sports. Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) are 17th on 5 points after 3 games, 2 points behind Etincelles, level on points with AS Kigali. A win would take them above Etincelles.
Form. Sunrise FC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D W. Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L D.
The numbers. Sunrise FC score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Sunrise FC average 7.7 shots (2.6 on target), 4.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) average 6.6 shots (2.2 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sunrise FC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Sunrise FC 1-1 Al-Merrikh SC (SDN) (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).