Match details. Sc1. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 20:30 Lagos time.
Form. Hibernian LFC have won none, drawn one and lost four of their last five league games, 0.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L D L L. Celtic LFC have won two, drawn none and lost one of their last three league games, 2.0 points a game. Their last three in the league, newest first: W W L.
The numbers. Hibernian LFC score 0.6 and concede 1.4 a game over their last five, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Hibernian LFC average 16.7 shots (5.2 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Celtic LFC score three and concede 0.7 a game over their last three, with one clean sheet. Celtic LFC average 16.6 shots (8.4 on target), 6.9 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 57% of the ball.
The case against. Hibernian LFC's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Celtic LFC to win. An open game. Celtic LFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Celtic LFC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Hibernian LFC 1-2 Celtic LFC (9% chance).
The agreed story. Celtic LFC or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).