Tallinna FC Flora vs Tartu JK Welco
Match details. Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Tallinna FC Flora have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. In this competition Tallinna FC Flora have gone W. Tartu JK Welco have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Tallinna FC Flora score 3.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Tallinna FC Flora average 15.4 shots (5.7 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Tartu JK Welco score 2.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Tartu JK Welco average 11.7 shots (5.5 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 8% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: Tartu JK Welco are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Tartu JK Welco are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tartu JK Welco. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Tallinna FC Flora Over 0.5 Goals (Tartu JK Welco's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Tartu JK Welco Over 1.5 Goals (Tallinna FC Flora's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Tallinna FC Flora 1-2 Tartu JK Welco (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).