Mamelodi Sundowns vs Lamontville Golden Arrows
Match details. Knockout Cup, Quarter-finals. Kick-off is Tue 3 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Mamelodi Sundowns have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D W. In this competition Mamelodi Sundowns have gone W. Lamontville Golden Arrows have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D. In this competition Lamontville Golden Arrows have gone W.
The numbers. Mamelodi Sundowns score 2.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Mamelodi Sundowns average 19.0 shots (8.2 on target), 8.2 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 66% of the ball. Lamontville Golden Arrows score one and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. Lamontville Golden Arrows average 11.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Mamelodi Sundowns have won six, drawn two and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Mamelodi Sundowns won three and Lamontville Golden Arrows won one. The last time they met, on 6 Sep 2026, it finished Mamelodi Sundowns 2-1 Lamontville Golden Arrows: Mamelodi Sundowns had 12 shots to 13, 59% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. A knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and Mamelodi Sundowns are not clearly stronger.
The read. Mamelodi Sundowns or the draw. Their goals for and against make Mamelodi Sundowns the likelier winners; Mamelodi Sundowns are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mamelodi Sundowns; the meetings favour Mamelodi Sundowns.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Mamelodi Sundowns or Under 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Mamelodi Sundowns to Win (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Mamelodi Sundowns 1-1 Lamontville Golden Arrows (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).