Alacranes de Durango vs Leones Negros UDEG
Match details. Liga de Expansion MX, Quarter-finals. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 04:05 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Francisco Zarco, Durango.
What's at stake. Alacranes de Durango are 7th on 24 points after 15 games, 1 point behind Venados FC, 2 points clear of Tlaxcala. A win would take them above Venados FC. Leones Negros UDEG are 2nd on 30 points after 15 games, level on points with CA La Paz, 4 points clear of Monarcas. A win would take them above CA La Paz. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Alacranes de Durango have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. Leones Negros UDEG have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W.
The numbers. Alacranes de Durango score three and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alacranes de Durango average 5.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Leones Negros UDEG score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Leones Negros UDEG average 4.4 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Alacranes de Durango have won one, drawn none and lost two. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 23 Aug 2026, it finished Alacranes de Durango 1-2 Leones Negros UDEG.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Alacranes de Durango the likelier winners, but Leones Negros UDEG are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Leones Negros UDEG. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Alacranes de Durango's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Leones Negros UDEG or the draw. Their goals for and against make Alacranes de Durango the likelier winners; Leones Negros UDEG are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Leones Negros UDEG.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Alacranes de Durango 1-1 Leones Negros UDEG (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).