FC Cajamarca vs Alianza Atletico
FC Cajamarca scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · Alianza Atletico conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 49% · FC Cajamarca: only games against sides at Alianza Atletico's level · Alianza Atletico: only games against sides at FC Cajamarca's level
Match details. Liga 1, Clausura - 16. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 21:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon, Cajamarca.
Form. FC Cajamarca have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D. Alianza Atletico have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. FC Cajamarca score one and concede 2.8 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. FC Cajamarca average 3.0 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Alianza Atletico score 2.3 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Alianza Atletico average 4.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 34% against the records' 76%.
The read. No firm call: Alianza Atletico are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Alianza Atletico the likelier winners; Alianza Atletico are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Alianza Atletico. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 84%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 80% on the records (FC Cajamarca: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Alianza Atletico: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 8). Predicted score: FC Cajamarca 1-2 Alianza Atletico (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).