Match details. LaLiga. Kick-off is Sun 22 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. Barcelona have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. Villarreal have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L.
The numbers. Barcelona score four and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Barcelona average 6.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Villarreal score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Villarreal average 7.3 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 82% against the records' 60%.
The read. No firm call: Barcelona are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Barcelona the likelier winners; Barcelona are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Barcelona. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Villarreal Over 0.5 goals (Villarreal's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Barcelona 3-0 Villarreal (11% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Barcelona or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAR 7 of 7 (100%) · VIL 5 of 6 (83%)91.7%
Barcelona: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Villarreal: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · Barcelona: only games against sides at Villarreal's level · Villarreal: only games against sides at Barcelona's level
GOALS
Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAR 7 of 7 (100%) · VIL 5 of 6 (83%)96.4%
Barcelona: over 0.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Villarreal: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · Barcelona: only games against sides at Villarreal's level · Villarreal: only games against sides at Barcelona's level
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.18
BAR 7 of 7 (100%) · VIL 3 of 6 (50%)66.7%
Barcelona: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Villarreal: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Barcelona: only games against sides at Villarreal's level · Villarreal: only games against sides at Barcelona's level
BARCELONA GOALS
Barcelona Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
BAR 7 of 7 (100%) · VIL 5 of 6 (83%)93.4%
Barcelona scored in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Villarreal conceded in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · Barcelona: only games against sides at Villarreal's level · Villarreal: only games against sides at Barcelona's level
Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Villarreal Over 0.5 goals (Villarreal's own games don't back it (3 of 6))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 3–010.7%
Barcelona goals →
Villarreal goals ↓
0-04%
1-08%
2-012%
3-011%
4-07%
5-04%
0-12%
1-17%
2-19%
3-18%
4-15%
5-13%
0-20.8%
1-22%
2-23%
3-23%
4-22%
5-21%
0-30.2%
1-30.5%
2-30.7%
3-30.7%
4-30.5%
5-30.2%
0-40.0%
1-40.1%
2-40.1%
3-40.1%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.0%
2-50.0%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
BARCELONAWWLLWWWWWW2.40 PPG
VILLARREALLLWWLDWLWW1.60 PPG
THE NUMBERS
BARCELONA HOMExVILLARREAL AWAY
4.18SCORED A GAME1.361.09CONCEDED A GAME1.3680%BOTH SCORED50%20%CLEAN SHEETS20%6.82CORNERS A GAME7.271.55CARDS A GAME2.09
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
2.70POINTS A GAME1.09+3.20GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00+8.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.62.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.410LEAGUE GAMES11
Barcelona: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, more shots than it allows, better form (last 5).
BARCELONA 2:0 HANDICAP
–
389 OF 413
NO PRICE YET
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
90%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
90%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
61%
NO · 85/90
BARCELONA OR DRAW
74%
NO · 80/85
VILLARREAL OR DRAW
43%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 11 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
BARCELONAxVILLARREAL
5GAMES64.40SCORED A GAME1.501.40CONCEDED A GAME1.335.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.8100%OVER 1.5 GOALS67%100%OVER 2.5 GOALS67%80%BOTH SCORE67%4.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.312.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES12.8
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Barcelona have scored in 100% of their games.
Villarreal have scored in 60% of their games.
Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards