GD Chaves vs FC Penafiel
Match details. Liga Portugal 2, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira, Chavez. The referee is Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca.
What's at stake. GD Chaves are 15th on 8 points after 9 games, level on points with Amarante, level on points with FC Porto B. A win would take them above Amarante. FC Penafiel are 2nd on 19 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Sporting CP B, level on points with Lusitânia Lourosa. A win would take them above Sporting CP B.
Form. GD Chaves have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D L. FC Penafiel have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. GD Chaves score 1.3 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. GD Chaves average 14.4 shots (5.9 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. FC Penafiel score 2.6 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. FC Penafiel average 11.9 shots (4.7 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings GD Chaves have won three, drawn two and lost four. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, GD Chaves won one, one was drawn and FC Penafiel won two. The last time they met, on 6 Feb 2026, it finished GD Chaves 0-1 FC Penafiel: eight yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 36% against the records' 59%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The read. No firm call: FC Penafiel are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. FC Penafiel are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Penafiel. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: GD Chaves 1-1 FC Penafiel (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).