Match details. 1. Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Muglaspor are 9th on 18 points after 13 games, level on points with Bodrum FK, 2 points clear of Fatih Karagümrük. A win would take them above Bodrum FK. Esenler Erokspor are 12th on 15 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Sarıyer, 1 point clear of Bandırmaspor. A win would take them above Sarıyer.
Form. Muglaspor have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L D. In this competition Muglaspor have gone L W W L D D. Esenler Erokspor have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. In this competition Esenler Erokspor have gone W L W D W L.
The numbers. Muglaspor score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Muglaspor average 12.2 shots (5.5 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Esenler Erokspor score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Esenler Erokspor average 12.6 shots (3.8 on target), 6.4 corners and 3.5 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Muglaspor have won none, drawn one and lost one. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 21 Jan 2018, it finished Muglaspor 2-2 Esenler Erokspor.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The case against. Esenler Erokspor's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. Muglaspor to win. Their goals for and against make Muglaspor the likelier winners; Muglaspor are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Esenler Erokspor Under 1.5 goals (Muglaspor's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Muglaspor 1-0 Esenler Erokspor (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).