Tartu JK Tammeka vs Parnu JK Vaprus
Match details. Premium Liiga, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 11:30 Lagos time. It is played at Tamme Stadium, Tartu.
What's at stake. Tartu JK Tammeka are 5th on 53 points after 35 games, 7 points behind Kalju Nomme, 6 points clear of Laagri. Parnu JK Vaprus are 8th on 37 points after 35 games, level on points with Nõmme United, 1 point clear of Kuressaare. A win would take them above Nõmme United. Tartu JK Tammeka have nothing left to play for. Parnu JK Vaprus have nothing left to play for.
Form. Tartu JK Tammeka have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L. In this competition Tartu JK Tammeka have gone W L W L L W. Parnu JK Vaprus have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L D. In this competition Parnu JK Vaprus have gone L D L L D D.
The numbers. Tartu JK Tammeka score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Tartu JK Tammeka average 4.6 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Parnu JK Vaprus score 0.8 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Parnu JK Vaprus average 3.6 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Tartu JK Tammeka have won none, drawn three and lost six. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, two were drawn and Parnu JK Vaprus won two. The last time they met, on 11 Jul 2026, it finished Tartu JK Tammeka 1-5 Parnu JK Vaprus.
Where it pulls both ways. Tartu JK Tammeka are the form side, but the meetings favour Parnu JK Vaprus: in the last nine meetings, Parnu JK Vaprus won six and three were drawn.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 80% on the records (Tartu JK Tammeka: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Parnu JK Vaprus: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.10. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Tartu JK Tammeka 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).