Match details. Liga MX, Apertura - 16. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 04:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, a neutral ground.
What's at stake. Atlante FC are 16th on 14 points after 15 games, 1 point behind Tigres UANL, 4 points clear of Necaxa. A win would take them above Tigres UANL. Club Santos Laguna are 8th on 22 points after 15 games, level on points with Leon, 1 point clear of Monterrey. A win would take them above Leon.
Form. Atlante FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Club Santos Laguna have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W.
The numbers. Atlante FC score 1.1 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Atlante FC average 17.2 shots (6.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Club Santos Laguna score 1.7 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Club Santos Laguna average 15.2 shots (5.8 on target), 7.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 33% against the records' 60%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The read. No firm call: Club Santos Laguna are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Club Santos Laguna are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Club Santos Laguna.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 69% on the records (Atlante FC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10; Club Santos Laguna: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10). Full cover: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.23. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Atlante FC 1-2 Club Santos Laguna (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).