Atletico Mineiro MG vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS

Match details. Copa do Brasil, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 22:00 Lagos time. It is played at Arena MRV, Bello Harisanta.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Atletico Mineiro MG have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W L.

The numbers. Atletico Mineiro MG score 1.3 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Atletico Mineiro MG average 13.5 shots (5.7 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS score 1.3 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS average 9.3 shots (4.1 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Mineiro MG have won four, drawn none and lost six. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Atletico Mineiro MG won one and Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS won three. The last time they met, on 1 Nov 2026, it finished Atletico Mineiro MG 0-2 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Atletico Mineiro MG had 20 shots to 6, 76% of the ball, one yellow card.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Atletico Mineiro MG the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour Atletico Mineiro MG; the meetings favour Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call); Atletico Mineiro MG or Over 1.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Atletico Mineiro MG 2-1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS (9% chance).