Match details. Copa Chile, Quarter-finals. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 23:00 Lagos time. The referee is M. Riquelme.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Universidad de Chile have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L D. CD Antofagasta have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Universidad de Chile score 3.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Universidad de Chile average 15.7 shots (6.2 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.6 cards a game. CD Antofagasta score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Antofagasta average 16.3 shots (6.8 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Universidad de Chile have won four, drawn two and lost four. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Universidad de Chile won one, two were drawn and CD Antofagasta won one. The last time they met, on 7 Oct 2026, it finished Universidad de Chile 0-2 CD Antofagasta.
The case against. A knockout game (Quarter-finals) with penalties if level, and CD Antofagasta are not clearly stronger. Universidad de Chile's record still gives them 41% to win.
The read. CD Antofagasta or the draw. An open game. CD Antofagasta are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CD Antofagasta. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Universidad de Chile 1-2 CD Antofagasta (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).