SD Amorebieta vs UD Logrones
Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe, Amorebieta-Etxano.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. SD Amorebieta have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. UD Logrones have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L W.
The numbers. SD Amorebieta score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. SD Amorebieta average 11.2 shots (5.4 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. UD Logrones score 2.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. UD Logrones average 12.0 shots (5.8 on target), 6.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings SD Amorebieta have won three, drawn two and lost two. Two of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, SD Amorebieta won two, one was drawn and UD Logrones won one. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2026, it finished SD Amorebieta 1-4 UD Logrones.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%; five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and UD Logrones are not clearly stronger. SD Amorebieta's record still gives them 37% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The read. UD Logrones or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make UD Logrones the likelier winners; both teams' records favour UD Logrones. Five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SD Amorebieta 1-1 UD Logrones (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).