UD Do Songo vs Ferroviario de Lichinga
Match details. Mocambola. Kick-off is Wed 4 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. UD Do Songo have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L. Ferroviario de Lichinga have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L D.
The numbers. UD Do Songo score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. UD Do Songo average 4.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Ferroviario de Lichinga score 0.5 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Ferroviario de Lichinga average 5.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 71% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: UD Do Songo are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. UD Do Songo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Do Songo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 29%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 1.69, 71% on the records (UD Do Songo: under 2.5 goals in 6 of 8; Ferroviario de Lichinga: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Leave: UD Do Songo Over 0.5 Goals (Ferroviario de Lichinga's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Do Songo 1-0 Ferroviario de Lichinga (16% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).