Man Utd vs Aston Villa
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at Old Trafford, Manchester.
What's at stake. Man Utd are 17th on 7 points after 9 games, 2 points behind Coventry, level on points with Crystal Palace. A win would take them above Coventry. Aston Villa are 10th on 12 points after 9 games, level on points with Tottenham, 1 point clear of Hull City. A win would take them above Tottenham.
Form. Man Utd have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L D. Aston Villa have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W.
The numbers. Man Utd score 1.2 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Man Utd average 13.7 shots (4.2 on target), 6.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Aston Villa score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Aston Villa average 15.0 shots (6.1 on target), 3.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Man Utd have won six, drawn one and lost two. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Man Utd won two, one was drawn and Aston Villa won one. The last time they met, on 15 Mar 2026, it finished Man Utd 3-1 Aston Villa: Man Utd had 16 shots to 9, 53% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Aston Villa are the form side, but the meetings favour Man Utd: in the last nine meetings, Man Utd won six, Aston Villa won two and one was drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%; six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 76% on the records (Man Utd: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6; Aston Villa: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.09. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Man Utd 1-2 Aston Villa (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).