Arsenal vs Hull City

Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Emirates Stadium, London.

What's at stake. Arsenal are 1st on 24 points after 9 games, 3 points clear of Manchester City. Hull City are 11th on 11 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Aston Villa, level on points with Leeds. A win would take them above Aston Villa.

Form. Arsenal have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D. Hull City have won one, drawn six and lost three of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L D L.

The numbers. Arsenal score 1.8 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Arsenal average 11.8 shots (4.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. Hull City score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Hull City average 9.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 34% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last nine meetings Arsenal have won seven, drawn two and lost none. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Arsenal won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 11 Feb 2017, it finished Arsenal 2-0 Hull City: Arsenal had 17 shots to 9, 49% of the ball, four yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 84% against the records' 60%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.

The read. No firm call: Arsenal are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Arsenal the likelier winners; Arsenal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Arsenal; the meetings favour Arsenal. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Arsenal to win at 1.19, 88% on the records (the tipsters read Arsenal as a clear winner (3 scores) and Arsenal are 1.4 points a game better this season - 21 of 24 games like this were won). The safer one: Hull City Under 1.5 Goals at 1.09 (89%). Full cover: Hull City Under 1.5 Goals at 1.09. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Arsenal 3-0 Hull City (13% chance).