Lugano vs FK Kauno Zalgiris

Match details. UEFA Conference League, League Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio di Cornaredo, Lugano. The referee is I. Frid.

What's at stake. Lugano are 2nd on 6 points after 2 games, level on points with Panathinaikos, level on points with Brann. A win would take them above Panathinaikos. FK Kauno Zalgiris are 36th on 0 points after 2 games, level on points with Inter Club d'Escaldes. A win would take them above Inter Club d'Escaldes.

Form. Lugano have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. FK Kauno Zalgiris have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L. In this competition FK Kauno Zalgiris have gone L L.

The numbers. Lugano score three and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Lugano average 13.6 shots (6.3 on target), 4.7 corners and 3.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. FK Kauno Zalgiris score 1.9 and concede 1.1 a game in their last seven away, with four clean sheets. FK Kauno Zalgiris average 11.6 shots (5.6 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 84% against the records' 57%.

The read. No firm call: Lugano are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lugano the likelier winners; Lugano are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lugano. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.13, 88% on the records (Lugano: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; FK Kauno Zalgiris: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7 away). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.14. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Lugano 3-0 FK Kauno Zalgiris (12% chance).