Match details. 1. Liga. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
Form. PFK Arsenal Tula have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. FC Chelyabinsk have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W.
The numbers. PFK Arsenal Tula score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. PFK Arsenal Tula average 0.1 cards a game. FC Chelyabinsk score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. FC Chelyabinsk average 3.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 26% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: FC Chelyabinsk are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Chelyabinsk the likelier winners; FC Chelyabinsk are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Chelyabinsk. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: PFK Arsenal Tula or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs FC Chelyabinsk); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: PFK Arsenal Tula 1-2 FC Chelyabinsk (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).