Napoli vs Torino
Match details. Serie A. Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time.
Form. Napoli have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L L. Torino have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.
The numbers. Napoli score 2.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Napoli average 12.6 shots (6.1 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Torino score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Torino average 3.8 corners and 1.1 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 68% against the records' 42%.
The read. No firm call: Napoli are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Napoli the likelier winners; Napoli are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 78% on the records (Napoli: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7; Torino: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Full cover: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Napoli 2-1 Torino (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).