Parma Calcio vs Roma
Parma Calcio scored under 1.5 in 4 of 5 at home · Roma conceded under 1.5 in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · Parma Calcio: only games against sides at Roma's level · Roma: only games against sides at Parma Calcio's level
Match details. Serie A. Kick-off is Sat 21 Nov, 18:00 Lagos time.
Form. Parma Calcio have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. Roma have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W D W.
The numbers. Parma Calcio score 0.5 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Parma Calcio average 9.3 shots (3.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Roma score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Roma average 5.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 73% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: Roma are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Roma the likelier winners; Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.17, 79% on the records (Parma Calcio: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Roma: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Full cover: Parma Calcio Under 1.5 Goals at 1.20. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Parma Calcio 1-2 Roma (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).