Estoril Praia vs Maritimo Madeira

Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sun 8 Nov, 16:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril.

What's at stake. Estoril Praia are 18th on 2 points after 10 games, 5 points behind Casa Pia. Maritimo Madeira are 14th on 8 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Vitória SC, 1 point clear of Nacional. A win would take them above Vitória SC.

Form. Estoril Praia have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their last ten, 0.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition Estoril Praia have gone L L L L L D. Maritimo Madeira have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L. In this competition Maritimo Madeira have gone L L L D L L.

The numbers. Estoril Praia score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Estoril Praia average 14.2 shots (4.9 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 46% of the ball. Maritimo Madeira score one and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Maritimo Madeira average 10.2 shots (3.2 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last nine meetings Estoril Praia have won three, drawn four and lost two. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Estoril Praia won two, one was drawn and Maritimo Madeira won one. The last time they met, on 27 May 2023, it finished Estoril Praia 3-1 Maritimo Madeira: Estoril Praia had 14 shots to 19, 50% of the ball, seven yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Estoril Praia the likelier winners, but Maritimo Madeira are the stronger side on form and the table. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.34, 74% on the records (Estoril Praia: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Maritimo Madeira: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Maritimo Madeira or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Maritimo Madeira or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Estoril Praia 1-1 Maritimo Madeira (13% chance).