Match details. Tr1. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. Trabzonspor AS have won seven, drawn three and lost none of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. Besiktas have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L.
The numbers. Trabzonspor AS score 5.1 and concede 0.4 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Trabzonspor AS average 23.3 shots (9.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Besiktas score four and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. Besiktas average 15.7 shots (9.1 on target), 7.6 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 61% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Trabzonspor AS the likelier winners, but Trabzonspor AS are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Besiktas.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Trabzonspor AS 2-1 Besiktas (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Trabzonspor AS the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).