Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 16. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. Club Haro Deportivo have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. CD Varea have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Club Haro Deportivo score 2.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Club Haro Deportivo average 13.0 shots (6.0 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.3 cards a game. CD Varea score 0.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. CD Varea average 11.5 shots (3.8 on target), 4.5 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
The case against. CD Varea's record still gives them 26% to win.
The read. Club Haro Deportivo to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Club Haro Deportivo the likelier winners; Club Haro Deportivo are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Club Haro Deportivo or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Club Haro Deportivo Over 0.5 Goals (CD Varea's own games don't back it (4 of 9)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Club Haro Deportivo 1-0 CD Varea (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).