Match details. AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 4. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 19:15 Lagos time. It is played at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha. The referee is Kim Jong-hyeok.
What's at stake. Al Gharafa SC are 15th on 0 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Al Sadd, level on points with Al-Wasl FC. A win would take them above Al Sadd. Al Qadsiah are 8th on 5 points after 3 games, level on points with Al Shamal, 1 point clear of Al-Ittihad FC. A win would take them above Al Shamal.
Form. Al Gharafa SC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L. Al Qadsiah have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. Al Gharafa SC score 1.5 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Al Gharafa SC average 11.8 shots (4.4 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 38% of the ball. Al Qadsiah score 2.6 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Al Qadsiah average 13.2 shots (6.2 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 44%.
The read. No firm call: Al Qadsiah are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Al Qadsiah the likelier winners; Al Qadsiah are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 81% on the records (Al Gharafa SC: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home; Al Qadsiah: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.29. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Al Qadsiah Over 1.5 goals (Al Gharafa SC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Al Gharafa SC 1-2 Al Qadsiah (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).