Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Unipol Domus, Cagliari.
What's at stake. Cagliari are 12th on 13 points after 10 games, level on points with Genoa, 2 points clear of Atalanta. A win would take them above Genoa. Frosinone are 6th on 20 points after 10 games, 1 point behind AC Milan, 3 points clear of Juventus. A win would take them above AC Milan.
Team news. Cagliari are without Riyad Idrissi (jumpers knee).
Form. Cagliari have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D. Frosinone have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L.
The numbers. Cagliari score 0.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Cagliari average 10.2 shots (4.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 40% of the ball. Frosinone score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Frosinone average 21.1 shots (7.2 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Cagliari have won three, drawn three and lost one. Four of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Cagliari won two, one was drawn and Frosinone won one. The last time they met, on 23 Sep 2025, it finished Cagliari 4-1 Frosinone: Cagliari had 16 shots to 13, 48% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Frosinone are the form side, but the meetings favour Cagliari: in the last seven meetings, Cagliari won three, Frosinone won one and three were drawn.
The read. No side to back. A draw is live. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%. Four of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 78% on the records (Cagliari: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 9; Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 9). Full cover: Under 5.5 Goals at 1.11. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Predicted score: Cagliari 1-2 Frosinone (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).