Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Match details. J1 League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 07:00 Lagos time. It is played at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka.
What's at stake. Avispa Fukuoka are 20th on 7 points after 13 games, 2 points behind Mito Hollyhock. A win would take them above Mito Hollyhock. V-Varen Nagasaki are 15th on 12 points after 13 games, 1 point behind Kyoto Sanga, level on points with Gamba Osaka. A win would take them above Kyoto Sanga.
Form. Avispa Fukuoka have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. In this competition Avispa Fukuoka have gone L L L L W L. V-Varen Nagasaki have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L D. In this competition V-Varen Nagasaki have gone L L W L D D.
The numbers. Avispa Fukuoka score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Avispa Fukuoka average 9.2 shots (2.6 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 42% of the ball. V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.2 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. V-Varen Nagasaki average 13.2 shots (3.4 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Avispa Fukuoka have won five, drawn one and lost four. Two of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Avispa Fukuoka won three and V-Varen Nagasaki won one. The last time they met, on 11 Apr 2026, it finished Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki: Avispa Fukuoka had 14 shots to 2, 42% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%; eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. V-Varen Nagasaki's record still gives them 45% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The read. Avispa Fukuoka to win. A tight game. V-Varen Nagasaki are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour V-Varen Nagasaki. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Eight of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 3.5 Goals (Avispa Fukuoka are a clear winner, no Unders); Avispa Fukuoka or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).