Match details. Kategoria e Pare. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Flamurtari Vlore have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. FK Kukesi have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W.
The numbers. Flamurtari Vlore score 1.6 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Flamurtari Vlore average 13.2 shots (5.1 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game. FK Kukesi score 1.6 and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. FK Kukesi average 10.9 shots (4.9 on target), 4.9 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 20% against the records' 46%.
The read. No firm call: FK Kukesi are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. FK Kukesi are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Kukesi. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 41%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (FK Kukesi are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 4.5 Goals (FK Kukesi are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Flamurtari Vlore 1-1 FK Kukesi (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).