Al-Shabab vs AL Tadamun Buri
Match details. King of Bahrain Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Al-Shabab have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W L. In this competition Al-Shabab have gone L. AL Tadamun Buri have won two, drawn none and lost eight of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L W. In this competition AL Tadamun Buri have gone L L.
The numbers. Al-Shabab score 0.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AL Tadamun Buri score 0.6 and concede 2.5 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and seven games without a goal.
Head to head. In the last two meetings Al-Shabab have won one, drawn one and lost none. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 17 Jan 2024, it finished Al-Shabab 3-1 AL Tadamun Buri.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and Al-Shabab are not clearly stronger. AL Tadamun Buri's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Al-Shabab or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Al-Shabab the likelier winners; Al-Shabab are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al-Shabab. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Al-Shabab or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Al-Shabab or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Al-Shabab 1-0 AL Tadamun Buri (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).