Match details. Gamma Ethniki, Group 4 - 6. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Digenis Neochoriou are 10th on 2 points after 4 games, 2 points behind Sarakinos, 1 point clear of Iraklis Larissa. A win would take them above Sarakinos. Ethnikos Keramidiou are 3rd on 9 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Anthoupoli, 1 point clear of Ermis Exochi. A win would take them above Anthoupoli.
Form. Digenis Neochoriou have won none, drawn two and lost two of their last four, 0.5 points a game. Their last four, newest first: L D D L. Ethnikos Keramidiou have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W.
The numbers. Digenis Neochoriou score 0.5 and concede 2.2 a game over their last four, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Digenis Neochoriou average 3.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Ethnikos Keramidiou score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Ethnikos Keramidiou average 9.6 shots (4.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game.
The read. Ethnikos Keramidiou to win. Their goals for and against make Ethnikos Keramidiou the likelier winners; Ethnikos Keramidiou are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Digenis Neochoriou 1-2 Ethnikos Keramidiou (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).