Benfica vs KKS Lech Poznan
Match details. UEFA Europa League, League Stage - 4. Kick-off is Thu 5 Nov, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. The referee is Martin Matosa.
What's at stake. Benfica are 2nd on 9 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Olympiakos Piraeus, level on points with Bayer Leverkusen. A win would take them above Olympiakos Piraeus. KKS Lech Poznan are 32nd on 1 point after 3 games, level on points with Lillestrom, 1 point clear of Plzen. A win would take them above Lillestrom.
Team news. Benfica are without L. Barreiro (inactive), E. Barrenechea (injury), D. Lukebakio (injury), L. Barreiro (inactive), E. Barrenechea (injury), D. Lukebakio (injury). KKS Lech Poznan are without A. Douglas (ankle injury), A. Gholizadeh (knee injury), M. Ishak (inactive), W. Monka (injury), J. Moutinho (inactive), A. Sayyadmanesh (groin injury).
Form. Benfica have won nine, drawn none and lost one of their last ten, 2.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. KKS Lech Poznan have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.
The numbers. Benfica score 2.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Benfica average 15.6 shots (5.6 on target), 6.9 corners and 3.4 cards a game, with 61% of the ball. KKS Lech Poznan score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. KKS Lech Poznan average 13.8 shots (5.9 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. Benfica have won all of the last two meetings. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 3 Dec 2020, it finished Benfica 4-0 KKS Lech Poznan: Benfica had 18 shots to 5, 57% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The case against. KKS Lech Poznan's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Benfica to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Benfica the likelier winners; Benfica are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Benfica. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. Best bet: Benfica 1UP at 1.10, 87% on the records (Benfica scored first 4 of last 5, led in 5; led in 5 of 5 at home). Backup: Over 3.5 Cards at 1.63. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Benfica win and over 2.5 goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Benfica 2-1 KKS Lech Poznan (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).