CACRE

16:00Sat 14 Nov

NEW

Crewe Alexandra vs Newport County

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. League Two. Kick-off is Sat 14 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.

Form. Crewe Alexandra have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W. Newport County have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D.

The numbers. Crewe Alexandra score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Crewe Alexandra average 4.5 corners and 1.4 cards a game. Newport County score 1.5 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Newport County average 4.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 52% against the records' 26%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.

The read. No firm call: Crewe Alexandra are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Crewe Alexandra the likelier winners; Crewe Alexandra are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Crewe Alexandra 1-1 Newport County (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Crewe Alexandra or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.19

CRE 7 of 8 (88%) · NEW 5 of 7 (71%)79.5%

Crewe Alexandra: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Newport County: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CRE 7 of 8 (88%) · NEW 7 of 7 (100%)94.2%

Crewe Alexandra: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Newport County: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

CRE 6 of 8 (75%) · NEW 6 of 7 (86%)86%

Crewe Alexandra: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Newport County: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.71

CRE 6 of 8 (75%) · NEW 4 of 7 (57%)53.6%

Crewe Alexandra: both scored in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Newport County: both scored in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level

CREWE ALEXANDRA GOALS

Crewe Alexandra Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.19

CRE 7 of 8 (88%) · NEW 5 of 7 (71%)80.8%

Crewe Alexandra scored in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Newport County conceded in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level

NEWPORT COUNTY GOALS

Newport County Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.40

CRE 5 of 7 (71%) · NEW 7 of 8 (88%)65.6%

Newport County scored in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Crewe Alexandra conceded in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 79% · Newport County: only games against sides at Crewe Alexandra's level · Crewe Alexandra: only games against sides at Newport County's level

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 12.3%

Crewe Alexandra goals →

Newport County goals ↓

0-07%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

CREWE ALEXANDRADLLWWDWDWD1.60 PPG

NEWPORT COUNTYLWLDDWDDWW1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CREWE ALEXANDRA HOMExNEWPORT COUNTY AWAY

1.21SCORED A GAME1.431.21CONCEDED A GAME1.2180%BOTH SCORED60%10%CLEAN SHEETS30%4.50CORNERS A GAME4.291.43CARDS A GAME1.79

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.57POINTS A GAME1.36+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.29-1.9SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.01.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.614LEAGUE GAMES14

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

69%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

36%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

86%

OKAY · 85/90

CREWE ALEXANDRA OR DRAW

98%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

NEWPORT COUNTY OR DRAW

58%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (14 and 14 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CREWE ALEXANDRAxNEWPORT COUNTY

7GAMES71.71SCORED A GAME1.001.14CONCEDED A GAME1.572.9GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.686%OVER 1.5 GOALS57%43%OVER 2.5 GOALS43%86%BOTH SCORE57%4.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Crewe Alexandra have scored in 90% of their games.

Newport County have scored in 80% of their games.

Crewe Alexandra kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

Newport County kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards