Altrincham FC vs Notts County
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Moss Lane, Altrincham.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Altrincham FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W D. In this competition Altrincham FC have gone W D. Notts County have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Altrincham FC score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Altrincham FC average 11.2 shots (5.2 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Notts County score 1.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Notts County average 13.2 shots (4.2 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Altrincham FC have won one, drawn one and lost five. Four of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Notts County won four. The last time they met, on 28 Mar 2023, it finished Altrincham FC 0-2 Notts County.
Where it pulls both ways. Altrincham FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Notts County: in the last seven meetings, Altrincham FC won one, Notts County won five and one was drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%; four of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Altrincham FC 1-1 Notts County (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).