PAPLY

16:00Sat 7 Nov

ALV

ALV

Plymouth Argyle vs Alvechurch

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Home Park, Plymouth.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Plymouth Argyle have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L W. Alvechurch have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W D.

The numbers. Plymouth Argyle score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Plymouth Argyle average 15.1 shots (5.1 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Alvechurch score 2.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets.

The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Plymouth Argyle 2-1 Alvechurch (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Plymouth Argyle or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

PLY 4 of 6 (67%) · ALV 5 of 5 (100%)83.9%

Plymouth Argyle: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Plymouth Argyle or Over 2.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 91%

1.10

PLY 3 of 6 (50%) · ALV 4 of 5 (80%)68.3%

Plymouth Argyle: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75%

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

PLY 5 of 6 (83%) · ALV 4 of 5 (80%)82.8%

Plymouth Argyle: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.14

PLY 4 of 6 (67%) · ALV 5 of 5 (100%)82.2%

Plymouth Argyle: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.32

PLY 5 of 6 (83%) · ALV 4 of 5 (80%)81.1%

Plymouth Argyle: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 80%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.48

PLY 3 of 6 (50%) · ALV 4 of 5 (80%)65%

Plymouth Argyle: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.88

PLY 2 of 6 (33%) · ALV 5 of 5 (100%)62.8%

Plymouth Argyle: both scored in 2 of 6 at home · Alvechurch: both scored in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 55%

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.9%

Plymouth Argyle goals →

Alvechurch goals ↓

0-05%

1-07%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.5%

0-16%

1-111%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.7%

0-25%

1-28%

2-27%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.5%

0-32%

1-34%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.7%

5-30.3%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.7%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.2%

1-50.4%

2-50.3%

3-50.2%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

PLYMOUTH ARGYLEWWWLWWLLWD1.90 PPG

ALVECHURCHLDWLDDWDDW1.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE HOMExALVECHURCH AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.901.20CONCEDED A GAME1.4020%CLEAN SHEETS20%36%FAILED TO SCORE0%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.64POINTS A GAME1.86+0.14GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+0.6SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST–1.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.214LEAGUE GAMES14

Alvechurch: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

88%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

73%

NO · 85/90

PLYMOUTH ARGYLE OR DRAW

53%

NO · 80/85

ALVECHURCH OR DRAW

75%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (14 and 14 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

PLYMOUTH ARGYLExALVECHURCH

7GAMES71.14SCORED A GAME2.001.00CONCEDED A GAME1.292.1GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.371%OVER 1.5 GOALS71%43%OVER 2.5 GOALS57%29%BOTH SCORE57%3.0CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.0CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Plymouth Argyle have scored in 60% of their games.

Alvechurch have scored in 80% of their games.

Plymouth Argyle kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Alvechurch kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsteam newscornerscards