EDGE PICKStevenage FC Over 0.5 goals · 63% · @1.46
Book 68% · Us 63%-5price too short
Backed by
Stevenage FC scored in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Oxford United conceded in 2 of 6 at home · both last 10: 56% · H2H 6 of 6 · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level
· main loses on: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 0-4, 2-3, 1-4, 0-5, 2-4, 1-5, 0-6 and 43 more up to 10-10 | hedge wins on all of them
THE READ
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Kassam Stadium, Oxford.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Oxford United have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Stevenage FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L W.
The numbers. Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 0.3 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. Oxford United average 15.9 shots (5.4 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Stevenage FC score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Stevenage FC average 13.8 shots (4.9 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Oxford United have won five, drawn three and lost one. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Oxford United won two, one was drawn and Stevenage FC won one. The last time they met, on 22 Aug 2026, it finished Oxford United 2-1 Stevenage FC: Oxford United had 12 shots to 14, 55% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. A knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Oxford United are not clearly stronger. Stevenage FC's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Oxford United or the draw. Oxford United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Oxford United; the meetings favour Oxford United.
The bets. Best bet: Oxford United or Draw at 1.27, 77% on the records (Oxford United unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home; Stevenage FC failed to win 4 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Oxford United 1UP (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Oxford United 1-1 Stevenage FC (12% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Oxford United or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.20
OXF 5 of 5 (100%) · STE 6 of 6 (100%)93.3%
Oxford United scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC trailed or failed to win in 4 of 5 away
Oxford United or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
OXF 5 of 6 (83%) · STE 7 of 8 (88%)89.9%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · H2H 6 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · the call is Oxford United or the draw: a knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Oxford United are not c
Oxford United or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.23
OXF 5 of 6 (83%) · STE 6 of 8 (75%)85.2%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · H2H 6 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · the call is Oxford United or the draw: a knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Oxford United are not c
Oxford United or Under 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.20
OXF 6 of 6 (100%) · STE 4 of 8 (50%)77.1%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · the call is Oxford United or the draw: a knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Oxford United are not c
Double Chance: Oxford United or DrawMAININ CODES
1.27
OXF 6 of 6 (100%) · STE 4 of 8 (50%)77.1%
Oxford United unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC failed to win 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
2nd Half - Double Chance: Oxford United or DrawPAGE ONLY
1.26
OXF 5 of 6 (83%) · STE 5 of 8 (62%)75.1%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 5 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
Oxford United or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.42
OXF 4 of 6 (67%) · STE 7 of 8 (88%)73.6%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 74% · H2H 4 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · the call is Oxford United or the draw: a knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Oxford United are not c
Oxford United or draw and under 3.5 goalsSETTLEDPAGE ONLY
1.67
OXF 6 of 6 (100%) · STE 3 of 8 (38%)62.8%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 64% · H2H 3 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · rule 2: the meetings back Oxford United: in the last 9 meetings, Oxford United won 5, Stevenage FC won 1 and 3 were drawn;
Oxford United or Draw & Over 1.5LEANPAGE ONLY
1.67
OXF 4 of 6 (67%) · STE 2 of 8 (25%)56.9%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 2 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 52% · H2H 5 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
GOALS
Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES
1.10
OXF 6 of 6 (100%) · STE 7 of 8 (88%)91.1%
Oxford United: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 5 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.30
OXF 6 of 6 (100%) · STE 6 of 8 (75%)81%
Oxford United: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · H2H 4 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.32
OXF 4 of 6 (67%) · STE 5 of 8 (62%)75.1%
Oxford United: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 71% · H2H 6 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.85
OXF 2 of 6 (33%) · STE 3 of 8 (38%)53.6%
Oxford United: both scored in 2 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: both scored in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 44% · H2H 6 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
OXFORD UNITED GOALS
Oxford United Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.22
OXF 5 of 6 (83%) · STE 6 of 8 (75%)85.2%
Oxford United scored in 5 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC conceded in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 82% · H2H 6 of 6 · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
STEVENAGE FC GOALS
Stevenage FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.46
OXF 5 of 8 (62%) · STE 2 of 6 (33%)63%
Stevenage FC scored in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Oxford United conceded in 2 of 6 at home · both last 10: 56% · H2H 6 of 6 · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY
1.26
OXF 4 of 6 (67%) · STE 8 of 8 (100%)89.2%
Oxford United: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · Stevenage FC: the bet landed in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
CARDS
Over 1.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
OXF 5 of 5 (100%) · STE 5 of 6 (83%)91.7%
Oxford United's games: over 1.5 cards in 5 of 5 at home · Stevenage FC's games: over 1.5 cards in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 92% · Oxford United: only games against sides at Stevenage FC's level · Stevenage FC: only games against sides at Oxford United's level
Left off the list: Oxford United 1UP (the numbers (59%) and the records (81%) are 22 points apart, and nothing settles it)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–112.3%
Oxford United goals →
Stevenage FC goals ↓
0-06%
1-08%
2-07%
3-03%
4-01%
5-00.4%
0-17%
1-112%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.5%
0-25%
1-28%
2-26%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.4%
0-32%
1-33%
2-33%
3-31%
4-30.5%
5-30.2%
0-40.7%
1-41%
2-40.9%
3-40.4%
4-40.2%
5-40.1%
0-50.2%
1-50.3%
2-50.2%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).
FORM · LAST 10
OXFORD UNITEDWWDWDWDWDW2.20 PPG
STEVENAGE FCWWLWWWLWLD1.90 PPG
THE NUMBERS
OXFORD UNITED HOMExSTEVENAGE FC AWAY
1.70SCORED A GAME2.100.50CONCEDED A GAME1.0040%CLEAN SHEETS20%8%FAILED TO SCORE33%6.12CORNERS A GAME4.752.75CARDS A GAME1.121.54xG1.321.53xG AGAINST1.25
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
2.08POINTS A GAME1.33+0.92GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.33-0.9SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.62.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.412LEAGUE GAMES12
Oxford United: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
73%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
48%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
98%
VERY GOOD · 85/90
OXFORD UNITED OR DRAW
92%
VERY GOOD · 80/85
STEVENAGE FC OR DRAW
49%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (12 and 12 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
OXFORD UNITEDxSTEVENAGE FC
6GAMES61.50SCORED A GAME1.330.33CONCEDED A GAME1.171.8GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.567%OVER 1.5 GOALS67%33%OVER 2.5 GOALS33%33%BOTH SCORE50%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 9
OXFORD UNITED 5 · 56%DRAW 3STEVENAGE FC 1 · 11%
7 of 9BOTH TEAMS SCORED
8 of 9OVER 1.5 GOALS
5 of 9OVER 2.5 GOALS
3 of 9OVER 3.5 GOALS
2014-09-20Oxford United 0 – 0 Stevenage FC
2015-01-31Oxford United 2 – 0 Stevenage FC
2015-10-31Oxford United 5 – 1 Stevenage FC
2016-03-25Oxford United 1 – 1 Stevenage FC
2017-08-29Oxford United 6 – 2 Stevenage FC
2021-10-05Oxford United 1 – 2 Stevenage FC
2023-09-30Oxford United 3 – 1 Stevenage FC
2024-04-19Oxford United 1 – 1 Stevenage FC
TRENDS
Oxford United have scored in 90% of their games.
Stevenage FC have scored in 70% of their games.
Oxford United kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.
Stevenage FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headcornerscards