LOLEY

16:00Sat 7 Nov

HAR

Leyton Orient London vs Harborough Town FC

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Matchroom Stadium, London.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Leyton Orient London have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D. Harborough Town FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W W.

The numbers. Leyton Orient London score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last seven at home, with three clean sheets. Leyton Orient London average 14.6 shots (4.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Harborough Town FC score one and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Harborough Town FC average 8.3 shots (2.3 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 15% against the records' 49%.

The read. No firm call: Harborough Town FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Harborough Town FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Harborough Town FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Leyton Orient London 1-1 Harborough Town FC (14% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Harborough Town FC win or both teams scoreLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

LEY 6 of 10 (60%) · HAR 4 of 7 (57%)59%

Harborough Town FC: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Leyton Orient London: the bet landed in 4 of 7 at home · both last 10: 60%

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.10

LEY 7 of 7 (100%) · HAR 10 of 10 (100%)100%

Leyton Orient London: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 7 at home · Harborough Town FC: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.27

LEY 6 of 7 (86%) · HAR 9 of 10 (90%)88.6%

Leyton Orient London: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home · Harborough Town FC: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

HARBOROUGH TOWN FC GOALS

Harborough Town FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

LEY 6 of 10 (60%) · HAR 4 of 7 (57%)59%

Harborough Town FC scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Leyton Orient London conceded in 4 of 7 at home · both last 10: 60%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.19

LEY 6 of 7 (86%) · HAR 7 of 7 (100%)93.6%

Leyton Orient London: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · Harborough Town FC: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.25

LEY 4 of 7 (57%) · HAR 7 of 7 (100%)80.7%

Leyton Orient London: the bet landed in 4 of 7 at home · Harborough Town FC: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.24

LEY 5 of 7 (71%) · HAR 5 of 7 (71%)69.5%

Leyton Orient London: the bet landed in 5 of 7 at home · Harborough Town FC: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 66% · on half-time scores

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.6%

Leyton Orient London goals →

Harborough Town FC goals ↓

0-09%

1-010%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01.0%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-114%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.7%

1-40.9%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

LEYTON ORIENT LONDONLLLWLDWLLW1.00 PPG

HARBOROUGH TOWN FCLDWLWWWDLD1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

LEYTON ORIENT LONDON HOMExHARBOROUGH TOWN FC AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME1.001.30CONCEDED A GAME1.2040%CLEAN SHEETS30%23%FAILED TO SCORE0%4.38CORNERS A GAME4.671.25CARDS A GAME2.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.31POINTS A GAME1.23+0.38GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.46+0.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.21.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.013LEAGUE GAMES13

Leyton Orient London: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

70%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

36%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

LEYTON ORIENT LONDON OR DRAW

77%

NO · 80/85

HARBOROUGH TOWN FC OR DRAW

43%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (13 and 13 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

LEYTON ORIENT LONDONxHARBOROUGH TOWN FC

7GAMES61.43SCORED A GAME0.501.43CONCEDED A GAME1.832.9GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.386%OVER 1.5 GOALS83%57%OVER 2.5 GOALS33%43%BOTH SCORE50%4.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Leyton Orient London have scored in 70% of their games.

Harborough Town FC have scored in 60% of their games.

Leyton Orient London kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Harborough Town FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetscornerscards