Crewe Alexandra vs AFC Wimbledon
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Alexandra Stadium, Crewe.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Crewe Alexandra have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W. AFC Wimbledon have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L L.
The numbers. Crewe Alexandra score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Crewe Alexandra average 9.6 shots (3.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. AFC Wimbledon score one and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. AFC Wimbledon average 11.4 shots (3.1 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 41% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Crewe Alexandra have won two, drawn six and lost two. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, three were drawn and AFC Wimbledon won one. The last time they met, on 11 Feb 2025, it finished Crewe Alexandra 0-3 AFC Wimbledon: Crewe Alexandra had 4 shots to 13, 40% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. A knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Crewe Alexandra are not clearly stronger.
The read. Crewe Alexandra or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Crewe Alexandra the likelier winners; Crewe Alexandra are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 AFC Wimbledon (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).