Colchester United vs Worcester City
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Colchester Community Stadium.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Colchester United have won none, drawn five and lost five of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L. Worcester City have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D L.
The numbers. Colchester United score 0.8 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Colchester United average 11.0 shots (2.8 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Worcester City score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Worcester City average 9.2 shots (4.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 13% against the records' 45%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. No firm call: Worcester City are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Worcester City the likelier winners; Worcester City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Worcester City.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Colchester United 1-1 Worcester City (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).