Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden And Diamonds
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Burton Albion have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. AFC Rushden And Diamonds have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. Burton Albion score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Burton Albion average 12.6 shots (3.6 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. AFC Rushden And Diamonds score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 4% against the records' 48%.
The read. No firm call: AFC Rushden And Diamonds are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make AFC Rushden And Diamonds the likelier winners; AFC Rushden And Diamonds are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AFC Rushden And Diamonds. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 82%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Burton Albion 1-2 AFC Rushden And Diamonds (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).