AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool FC
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 7 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Hornchurch Stadium.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. AFC Hornchurch have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L W. In this competition AFC Hornchurch have gone W. Blackpool FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W L.
The numbers. AFC Hornchurch score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. AFC Hornchurch average 9.1 shots (2.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Blackpool FC score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Blackpool FC average 12.8 shots (4.8 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 72%.
The read. No firm call: AFC Hornchurch are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AFC Hornchurch the likelier winners; AFC Hornchurch are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AFC Hornchurch. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Both Teams to Score - Yes (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: AFC Hornchurch 1-1 Blackpool FC (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).