Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United
Match details. FA Cup, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Fri 6 Nov, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Memorial Stadium, Bristol.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bristol Rovers have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L L. Cambridge United have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L D.
The numbers. Bristol Rovers score 0.6 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Bristol Rovers average 14.2 shots (4.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Cambridge United score 2.1 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Cambridge United average 17.1 shots (6.4 on target), 10.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Bristol Rovers have won six, drawn none and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Bristol Rovers won two and Cambridge United won two. The last time they met, on 14 Feb 2026, it finished Bristol Rovers 1-3 Cambridge United: Bristol Rovers had 9 shots to 10, 52% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (1/128-finals) with penalties if level, and Cambridge United are not clearly stronger. Bristol Rovers's record still gives them 28% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. Cambridge United or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Cambridge United the likelier winners; Cambridge United are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cambridge United. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Cambridge United Over 0.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Cambridge United win or both teams score (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Bristol Rovers 0-2 Cambridge United (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).