Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. UD Sousense have won none, drawn two and lost five of their last seven, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D L L. SC Salgueiros have won three, drawn six and lost one of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W W.
The numbers. UD Sousense score 0.9 and concede two a game over their last seven, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. UD Sousense average 7.0 shots (2.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.7 cards a game. SC Salgueiros score 0.8 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. SC Salgueiros average 10.4 shots (3.5 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 52%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 17%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: SC Salgueiros or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); SC Salgueiros or Draw (1UP) (no result call). Predicted score: UD Sousense 1-1 SC Salgueiros (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).