Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Os Marialvas have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. Uniao Serra have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W D.
The numbers. Os Marialvas score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Os Marialvas average 11.8 shots (4.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Uniao Serra score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. Uniao Serra average 9.4 shots (4.1 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Os Marialvas 2-1 Uniao Serra (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).