Match details. Campeonato de Portugal. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Celoricense have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L L W. Rebordosa AC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W D.
The numbers. CD Celoricense score 0.6 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. CD Celoricense average 8.8 shots (2.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 2.7 cards a game. Rebordosa AC score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Rebordosa AC average 10.0 shots (4.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.8 cards a game.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 30%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.21, 75% on the records (CD Celoricense: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8; Rebordosa AC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9). Leave: CD Celoricense or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Rebordosa AC or Under 2.5 Goals (the call is a draw); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Celoricense 1-1 Rebordosa AC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).