Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 14, Group 14 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CF Villanovense are 4th on 16 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Moralo, 2 points clear of Castuera. A win would take them above Moralo. CF Jaraiz are 13th on 8 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Quintana, level on points with Santa Amalia. A win would take them above Quintana.
Form. CF Villanovense have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W D W. CF Jaraiz have won two, drawn two and lost four of their last eight league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D L W.
The numbers. CF Villanovense score 1.8 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CF Villanovense average 15.2 shots (4.2 on target), 6.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game. CF Jaraiz score 1.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. CF Jaraiz average 7.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last two meetings CF Villanovense have won none, drawn one and lost one. None of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 10 May 2026, it finished CF Villanovense 0-1 CF Jaraiz.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 33%.
The case against. CF Jaraiz's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. CF Villanovense to win. Their goals for and against make CF Villanovense the likelier winners; CF Villanovense are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CF Villanovense.
The bets. Best bet: CF Villanovense or Draw at 1.14, rated 77% (CF Villanovense unbeaten in 3 of 5 at home; CF Jaraiz failed to win 5 of 5 away). Predicted score: CF Villanovense 1-0 CF Jaraiz (12% chance).
The agreed story. CF Villanovense or the draw, goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).