Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 1, Group 1 - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CD Arenteiro are 16th on 7 points after 8 games, level on points with Somozas, level on points with Celta de Vigo III. A win would take them above Somozas. Celtiga CF are 13th on 10 points after 8 games, level on points with Pontevedra II, 1 point clear of Coruña. A win would take them above Pontevedra II.
Form. CD Arenteiro have won two, drawn one and lost five of their last eight league games, 0.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D L L. Celtiga CF have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W D D W.
The numbers. CD Arenteiro score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Arenteiro average 6.3 shots (1.0 on target), 4.0 corners and 4.3 cards a game. Celtiga CF score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Celtiga CF average 7.8 shots (4.7 on target), 2.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.35, rated 71% (CD Arenteiro: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 8; Celtiga CF: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Predicted score: CD Arenteiro 1-2 Celtiga CF (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Celtiga CF the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).