Match details. Primera Federacion, Women. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 10:30 Lagos time.
Form. CD Alba Fundacion have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W L D. Real Union de Tenerife Santa Cruz have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W L L D.
The numbers. CD Alba Fundacion score 2.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets. CD Alba Fundacion average 8.5 shots (3.9 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Real Union de Tenerife Santa Cruz score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game over their last five, with one clean sheet. Real Union de Tenerife Santa Cruz average 10.3 shots (5.3 on target), 3.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The read. CD Alba Fundacion to win. Their goals for and against make CD Alba Fundacion the likelier winners; CD Alba Fundacion are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Alba Fundacion.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CD Alba Fundacion 1-0 Real Union de Tenerife Santa Cruz (11% chance).
The agreed story. CD Alba Fundacion or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).