Match details. Liga de Ascenso. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 02:30 Lagos time.
Form. Affi Academia have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. CD Hondupino have won ten, drawn none and lost none of their last ten, 3.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Affi Academia score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. CD Hondupino score 2.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. CD Hondupino average 1.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. Affi Academia's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. CD Hondupino to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Hondupino the likelier winners; CD Hondupino are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Hondupino. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or CD Hondupino at 1.13, rated 80% (CD Hondupino unbeaten in 5 of 5 away; Affi Academia failed to win 3 of 5 at home). Backup: CD Hondupino Over 0.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Affi Academia 1-2 CD Hondupino (10% chance).
The agreed story. CD Hondupino or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).